Opening Thoughts

The wait is over and basketball season is back.  The Celtics finished their preseason with a promising 6-1 record and tonight they seek to carry that momentum into the regular season.  The game takes place at 7:30 pm in Boston against the lowly 76ers, whom the Celtics defeated 81-65 in their final preseason game last week.  

The Sixers severely lack depth and scoring ability.  They plan to rebuild around their talented new rookie center, Jahlil Okafor, but overall they are currently one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Celtics have the depth and talent to become one of the top teams in the East, so expect an easy victory tonight.  Here are some important things to watch for in the season opener:  

1. The Starting Lineup – Smart – Bradley – Crowder – Lee – Zeller

Brad Stevens dabbled with several different starting lineups throughout the preseason, but this one was most prevalent.  Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder have all stepped into leadership roles while David Lee is also a natural leader.  However Amir Johnson is much more capable on defense than Lee, making him one of several players who are banging on the door of the starting lineup.

Lee is a great addition … just not necessarily a great starting power forward.  He brings intangible assets such as veteran presence, leadership, and offensive versatility.  Unfortunately he is just not that effective on the court anymore.  He helped Golden State win a title last year but barely received any playing time during the postseason.

His offensive awareness helps the team run smoothly and he has developed a nice rapport with Bradley.  However Lee’s defense is unreliable and his scoring ability showed further regression during the preseason.  If Lee starts tonight, look for him to gradually relinquish that role to Johnson.

Lee and Zeller have played well, but not as well as Johnson and Kelly Olynyk have played off the bench.  The rotation may change frequently throughout the season.  Furthermore guards Isaiah Thomas and Evan Turner, two of the team's top playmakers, are part of the second unit right now.  They are fighting for starting roles as well.  Still, the biggest questions remain in the frontcourt, where six talented big men are fighting for four rotational spots.  

2. Interior Presence – Somebody must step up

The frontcourt puzzle will play itself out.  The Celtics have plenty of talented big men and some will earn more minutes than others.  However one of the best ways for these guys to establish themselves in the rotation is to step up their interior defensive game. 

The Celtics have spent the last five years getting outmuscled and outrebounded.  They need immediate improvement in paint presence so that they no longer look helpless against opponents who can score effectively inside.  Offensive rebounds have also been a major issue. 

Smart, Bradley, Crowder, and Terry Rozier give the Celtics an elite defensive presence in their backcourt.  However, once opponents penetrate inside, the Celtics bigs often look overmatched against (what should be) inferior opponents.  Lee and Olynyk are the biggest culprits of getting beaten inside by inferior players.  Zeller is guilty too. 

Look for Johnson to fight for minutes, as well as a starting role, by building upon his defensive prowess.  Johnson’s high level of activity on defense makes him very valuable.  He has an underrated quickness that enables him to impact the game in many ways.  

This team does not need Johnson to be a big-time scorer.  He just needs to consistently work hard and use his size and athleticism to maximize his defensive impact.  Furthermore, Sullinger and Mickey are on the outskirts of the rotation, but they can still earn some minutes if they are able to help control the paint by grabbing boards and playing physical defense.  Sullinger got hot towards the end of the preseason, finally parking his gigantic body under the rim and proceeding to pull down 14 rebounds during their final preseason game.

3. Noel and Okafor – The Saviors of the Sixers?

Sixers fans have been waiting for months to see their star big men in regular season action together for the first time.  Okafor and Nerlens Noel are both exceptionally skilled centers.  Okafor is a massive threat in the post while Noel is freakishly athletic.  The young and talented 6’11’’ centers combine for an intriguingly ferocious frontcourt in Philly.

 

Many believed that Okafor would be the #1 overall pick this past summer.  However the 19 year old, 270 lb freshman somehow slipped to Philadelphia at #3, right after leading Duke to a national championship.  Nevertheless the massive youngster has NBA-ready post moves and an NBA-ready body.  Essentially, he is teenage Al Jefferson with a 7'5'' wingspan.

Nearly half of this year's draft class believes that Okafor will win Rookie of the Year.  It's easy to see why, especially when you put him alongside a blossoming Noel, the #6 overall pick in the 2013 draft.  The exciting duo will give the Celtics a lot of trouble, but other than two big men, the Sixers don't have much else going for them.

Expect Okafor and Noel to combine for approximately 25 points and 20 rebounds tonight.  The rest of the game should belong to Boston.  Okafor will show off some nifty offensive plays in his NBA debut, working the post against Zeller and the Celtics.  Nevertheless the Sixers stand little chance of winning the game.  

Prediction: Celtics win 94-81.  Look for Smart to dominate on both sides of the ball, Crowder to set the pace in the hustle department, and rookie point guard Terry Rozier to come up with some big plays in his first official NBA game.

Celtics Rookies Implicated in Louisville Escort Scandal

During the Celtics’ preseason trip to Milan, Terry Rozier declined to speak to reporters about the ongoing investigation into the Louisville sex scandal.  He simply said,

“When it’s time to answer those questions and deal with that, I will. But right now I’m just trying to take in this moment with these guys out here and have a lot of fun with my teammates. So, like I said, when that time comes to answer that, I will.”

This morning, ESPN’s Outside the Lines aired an in-depth investigation into the scandal.  Katina Powell, who runs the escort service, claims that from 2010-14 many Louisville players and recruits were treated to on-campus dorm room shows complete with strippers, dancers, and sexual encounters for money.  

In her book about her business dealings with the Louisville basketball program, she claims that several high school aged recruits, including rookie Celtics Rozier and Jordan Mickey, had sex with her dancers for money.  The dancers were paid by Andre McGee, a former Louisville grad assistant to the basketball team.    

Rozier recently told Outside the Lines,

"I don't want to talk about it. ... I was already committed before I took my visit. ... I will say, though, Coach P [Pitino], as far as the dorm situations and visits, he'd go out to eat with the recruits and their parents. As far as after that, he wouldn't know. ... I can say his nose is clean."

Mickey could not be reached for comment.  If these allegations are true, Louisville and head coach Rick Pitino will face deadly sanctions, not just from a recruiting standpoint but from a legal one as well.  

Promoting prostitution is a Class D Felony and both Louisville officials and Powell are in danger of facing prison time depending on how the case unfolds.  A major point of focus will be whether or not Powell personally profited from the exchanges. 

It is highly unlikely that McGee, a grad student at the time, could afford to pay for all these expensive sex parties.  

Powell claims that McGee would often bring wads of cash to the parties and hand out money to the recruits to “pay” the dancers to simulate a strip club environment inside the dorm rooms.  McGee would allegedly ask the recruits which girl they liked, and then would negotiate deals with the individual strippers to have sex with the recruits. 

This story is gaining a lot of momentum and it is very unfortunate that two promising young Celtics players had to be involved in this sinful scandal out of Louisville.  In addition to the young recruits, many of the dancers, including Powell’s own daughters, are said to have participated in these sex parties as minors.  However the age of consent in Kentucky is 16. 

The Louisville program may be forever damaged by these allegations and Pitino’s coaching legacy will be forever tainted if it is determined that he knew anything  about the escort services.  The school may very well be stripped of their 2013 championship.  

Whatever happens in Louisville – here’s to hoping that the scandal will not be a huge distraction for Rozier and Mickey as they begin their promising young professional careers in Boston.

Celtics Draft Grades

Following a promising 2014-2015 campaign, the Celtics entered the offseason with two glaring needs: a dominant rim protector who controls the paint and a consistent three point shooter who stretches out opposing defenses.  Consequently it was no surprise that a chorus of boos rang out from Celtics fans in the Barclays Center when Danny Ainge opted not to address either necessity with the 16^th overall pick in the draft. 

Instead of addressing specific needs, Ainge targeted rookies with great attitudes and a lot of upside in order to continue building on Boston’s intriguing foundation of scrappy, young, hardworking players.  ESPN’s Celtics reporter Chris Forsberg gave the Celtics a big “Thumbs Down” for their draft choices – but I strongly disagree.  Here’s why they deserve a “Thumbs Up.”     

(16^th Pick) Terry Rozier: B+

Initially this pick floored me because I was incredulous that Ainge would select anybody other than Sam Dekker.  Most draft experts projected Dekker to be a lottery pick so it seemed like a gift from God that the former Wisconsin star forward was still available at sixteen.  Ainge then promptly slapped God in the face by passing on Dekker and selecting a point guard that could have fallen out of the first round altogether. 

But after the initial shock, and after Ainge selected a sharpshooting R.J. Hunter later in the first round, the idea of Terry Rozier running the offense for Boston’s second unit became increasingly intriguing.  The 21 year old Louisville product is an incredibly dynamic player and Ainge climbed up the draft board to select him early for a ton of good reasons.
        

First, Rozier plays like a pit bull, measuring in at approximately 6’2’’ and 190 pounds, most of which is muscle.  He plays with intensity, aggression, and confidence. Rozier will be able to make an immediate impact at the NBA level because of his athleticism, his raw strength, and his tenacious on-ball defensive skills.  These traits have actually caused Rozier to appear on the Celtics’ radar since his freshman year at Louisville and he has improved drastically over the past couple years.

Rozier penetrates inside both by blowing past defenders and by outmuscling them through the lane.  Furthermore his ability to make accurate passes off the drive makes him very difficult to cover.  This past season, Rozier increased his average points per game from 7 as a freshman to 17 as a sophomore.  His average steals per game also doubled and he improved in essentially every statistical category except for three-point shooting. 

His energy, quickness, and defensive intensity make him a great fit for Boston’s fast-paced style of play.  Right now he reminds me a little bit of Atlanta’s backup point guard Dennis Schröder, but in time, Rozier will grow and develop into a sort of Rajon Rondo/Marcus Smart hybrid who could find a home in almost any NBA starting lineup.      

Much like Smart, Rozier combines physical strength with speed to become a relentless force in frazzling opposing ball handlers.  Summer League play provided a chance to watch Rozier and Smart play alongside each other for the first time and the two high-energy combo guards forced a ton of turnovers that led to fast break points.  With the addition of Rozier, this team could easily average over 15 fast break points per game this season.  (Last year they averaged 13.6) 

Like Rondo, Rozier lacks height, but makes up for it with explosive quickness and a freakish 6’8’’ wingspan that helps him create chaos on defense.  He is also an extremely good rebounder for his height, pulling down nearly six rebounds per game last year.  Rozier is very comfortable inside the paint and has a graceful finishing touch at the rim. His jump shot is a bit inconsistent and needs some work, but fortunately it’s not broken like Rondo’s.  Rozier knocked down 33% of his three-point attempts and 77% of his free throws in college.

Bottom line, Rozier does not directly address any of the Celtics' most glaring needs, but he helps them significantly in several important categories as a catalyst and a playmaker.  Rozier will be able to create space for himself and others and generally make players around him better.  He will strongly contribute to Boston's high level of defensive pressure in the backcourt and absolutely will outmuscle and out-hustle opponents for loose balls.  Ainge knows the value of someone like that and jumped at the opportunity to acquire a hardworking young player who will likely make an immediate impact.  When asked if he will win the NBA Rookie of the Year award, Rozier responded “does an elevator go up and down?”  This kid will literally be a Tommy Point machine.

Despite Boston's crowded backcourt, Rozier will almost certainly carve out minutes for himself early in the season and will appear in three guard sets when the Celtics look to outrun opponents.  Rozier's new teammates are already very impressed with his work ethic and stellar play.  He is effective alongside other point guards and his own confidence is through the roof.  When asked on Twitter about the main goal for his career, he responded “GOAT.” 

Greatest of all time is certainly setting the bar high, but according to Amir Johnson and several other teammates, Rozier stands out at Celtics’ practices.  His high energy and superb athleticism speak volumes about his potential.  His unwavering confidence and great work ethic demonstrate his desire to win.  Don’t be surprised if Rozier leads the Celtics in Tommy Points this season.  He’s doing things right and will soon win over Celtics fans, coaches, and management.  He
has already won over his teammates.

(28^th Pick) R.J. Hunter: A+

The new best shooter in Boston has a very bright future for this franchise.

(33^rd Pick) Jordan Mickey: A+

The Celtics have lacked a legitimate paint presence since 2011 when they traded away Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City.  It will be interesting to see if Mickey can grow into this critical role.  At 6’8’’, he is undersized for a big man, but makes up for it with terrific athleticism, high energy, and a 7’2’’ wingspan.  The former LSU power forward is a true student of the game who models his style of play after Dennis Rodman.  With a role model like that, it is no wonder that Mickey led the NCAA with 3.6 blocks per game last season. 

Mickey blocked 219 shots in two seasons at LSU and last season he averaged a double-double with 15.4 points and 9.9 rebounds per game.  Like Rodman, Mickey is intensely focused on defense and rebounding.  He harasses opponents and loves getting under their skin.  But one of my favorite things about Mickey is that he frequently works with his stepfather, studying and watching film to identify potential areas of improvement in his own game.  Together they compare rebounding and defensive tendencies from Rodman and other NBA stars such as Dwight Howard in order to constantly find new ways to ensure that Mickey’s development never ceases.  This willingness to learn from others show a great deal of maturity for such a young player in the league.

This deep work ethic and defensive commitment make Mickey one of the most intriguing players in the draft class.  Like Rozier and Hunter, his ceiling is extremely high, which might explain why Ainge signed him to the biggest rookie contract in NBA history for a second round pick.  Mickey understands his role as a rebounder and shot blocker and those are two areas where the Celtics need immediate improvement.    

In the Summer League, Mickey showed off his athleticism and impressive leaping ability, averaging 2.4 blocks, 7.9 rebounds, and even scored 12.5 points per game.  He is quicker than he looks and his athleticism and awareness make him effective for pick and roll and fast break situations.  He finished some big alley-oop slams off lob passes from Rozier and Hunter and also demonstrated an ability to knock down open midrange jumpers from seemingly any angle.

Mickey is a fantastic pick because he cares deeply about both his own development and about playing in Boston.  He has very active hands on defense, always hustles, and thoroughly understands the game.  Probably the only other player I would have considered drafting with the 33^rd pick is former Kentucky center Dakari Johnson for sheer size purposes alone.  However Johnson does not possess the athleticism or basketball IQ that Mickey does, and Johnson cannot run the floor effectively with the fast paced Boston offense. 

In the opening weeks of the season, it may be difficult for Mickey to find consistent playing time in Boston’s crowded frontcourt, but he will ultimately get his chance – especially if the Celtics continue getting dominated inside the paint as they did last season.  If that happens, Mickey could well find himself patrolling the key for Stevens' small ball lineups sooner rather than later. 

(45^th Pick) Marcus Thornton: N/A

Not much to say here as Thornton will play in Australia this season.  Perhaps in a couple years, the sharpshooter will find his way back to Boston after working on his game overseas.