Opening Thoughts

The wait is over and basketball season is back.  The Celtics finished their preseason with a promising 6-1 record and tonight they seek to carry that momentum into the regular season.  The game takes place at 7:30 pm in Boston against the lowly 76ers, whom the Celtics defeated 81-65 in their final preseason game last week.  

The Sixers severely lack depth and scoring ability.  They plan to rebuild around their talented new rookie center, Jahlil Okafor, but overall they are currently one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Celtics have the depth and talent to become one of the top teams in the East, so expect an easy victory tonight.  Here are some important things to watch for in the season opener:  

1. The Starting Lineup – Smart – Bradley – Crowder – Lee – Zeller

Brad Stevens dabbled with several different starting lineups throughout the preseason, but this one was most prevalent.  Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder have all stepped into leadership roles while David Lee is also a natural leader.  However Amir Johnson is much more capable on defense than Lee, making him one of several players who are banging on the door of the starting lineup.

Lee is a great addition … just not necessarily a great starting power forward.  He brings intangible assets such as veteran presence, leadership, and offensive versatility.  Unfortunately he is just not that effective on the court anymore.  He helped Golden State win a title last year but barely received any playing time during the postseason.

His offensive awareness helps the team run smoothly and he has developed a nice rapport with Bradley.  However Lee’s defense is unreliable and his scoring ability showed further regression during the preseason.  If Lee starts tonight, look for him to gradually relinquish that role to Johnson.

Lee and Zeller have played well, but not as well as Johnson and Kelly Olynyk have played off the bench.  The rotation may change frequently throughout the season.  Furthermore guards Isaiah Thomas and Evan Turner, two of the team's top playmakers, are part of the second unit right now.  They are fighting for starting roles as well.  Still, the biggest questions remain in the frontcourt, where six talented big men are fighting for four rotational spots.  

2. Interior Presence – Somebody must step up

The frontcourt puzzle will play itself out.  The Celtics have plenty of talented big men and some will earn more minutes than others.  However one of the best ways for these guys to establish themselves in the rotation is to step up their interior defensive game. 

The Celtics have spent the last five years getting outmuscled and outrebounded.  They need immediate improvement in paint presence so that they no longer look helpless against opponents who can score effectively inside.  Offensive rebounds have also been a major issue. 

Smart, Bradley, Crowder, and Terry Rozier give the Celtics an elite defensive presence in their backcourt.  However, once opponents penetrate inside, the Celtics bigs often look overmatched against (what should be) inferior opponents.  Lee and Olynyk are the biggest culprits of getting beaten inside by inferior players.  Zeller is guilty too. 

Look for Johnson to fight for minutes, as well as a starting role, by building upon his defensive prowess.  Johnson’s high level of activity on defense makes him very valuable.  He has an underrated quickness that enables him to impact the game in many ways.  

This team does not need Johnson to be a big-time scorer.  He just needs to consistently work hard and use his size and athleticism to maximize his defensive impact.  Furthermore, Sullinger and Mickey are on the outskirts of the rotation, but they can still earn some minutes if they are able to help control the paint by grabbing boards and playing physical defense.  Sullinger got hot towards the end of the preseason, finally parking his gigantic body under the rim and proceeding to pull down 14 rebounds during their final preseason game.

3. Noel and Okafor – The Saviors of the Sixers?

Sixers fans have been waiting for months to see their star big men in regular season action together for the first time.  Okafor and Nerlens Noel are both exceptionally skilled centers.  Okafor is a massive threat in the post while Noel is freakishly athletic.  The young and talented 6’11’’ centers combine for an intriguingly ferocious frontcourt in Philly.

 

Many believed that Okafor would be the #1 overall pick this past summer.  However the 19 year old, 270 lb freshman somehow slipped to Philadelphia at #3, right after leading Duke to a national championship.  Nevertheless the massive youngster has NBA-ready post moves and an NBA-ready body.  Essentially, he is teenage Al Jefferson with a 7'5'' wingspan.

Nearly half of this year's draft class believes that Okafor will win Rookie of the Year.  It's easy to see why, especially when you put him alongside a blossoming Noel, the #6 overall pick in the 2013 draft.  The exciting duo will give the Celtics a lot of trouble, but other than two big men, the Sixers don't have much else going for them.

Expect Okafor and Noel to combine for approximately 25 points and 20 rebounds tonight.  The rest of the game should belong to Boston.  Okafor will show off some nifty offensive plays in his NBA debut, working the post against Zeller and the Celtics.  Nevertheless the Sixers stand little chance of winning the game.  

Prediction: Celtics win 94-81.  Look for Smart to dominate on both sides of the ball, Crowder to set the pace in the hustle department, and rookie point guard Terry Rozier to come up with some big plays in his first official NBA game.

Five Takeaways From Last Night’s Preseason Game

The Celtics showed off their depth and versatility last night with a commanding victory over the Brooklyn Nets.  Boston defeated Brooklyn 109-105 however the Celtics never trailed and they firmly controlled the game from start to finish. 

Boston led by as much as 18 before inserting non-rotational players such as Corey Walden and James Young into the lineup for the entire fourth quarter.  Overall, the Celtics were undeniably impressive in their first taste of NBA preseason action.  Here are five key takeaways from last night’s victory.

1. The Celtics defensive backcourt wreaks havoc.  As expected, the Celtics displayed high levels of energy and were incredibly active on defense.  They contested nearly every single opposing shot in the first half and frequently harassed opposing ball handlers with tight defensive pressure.  The Celtics recorded 12 steals and 9 blocks, frustrating Nets players and causing them to lose their cool and play errant basketball.  Brooklyn point guard Jarrett Jack was ejected in the second quarter for tackling Jonas Jerebko after Jack had turned the ball over to Jared Sullinger.  

The Celtics use hustle, resilience, and tenacity to create chaos for opposing offenses.  It was very impressive that the Celtics could keep their defensive intensity level high even with three of their best on-ball defenders missing the game.  Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Terry Rozier are combo guards that bring explosiveness and tenacity to their backcourt defense while often producing subsequent fast-break points.  The Celtics scored 18 fast break points last night and that number will only go up when those guards return from their respective ailments. 

2. The Celtics defensive frontcourt still lacks paint presence.  This is an issue that has plagued the Celtics for five years.  While the Celtics can outrun almost any opponent and can produce offensively in a variety of ways, they still lack an interior defensive anchor.  The Nets played poorly last night but they still out-rebounded the Celtics while managing to score 50 points from inside the paint.  The Celtics big men need to do better.  

Amir Johnson is a slight upgrade from last season in terms of defensive presence, but without a commanding force that truly deters opponents from frequently attacking the rim, Johnson and the other bigs must learn to work together more effectively.  It is worth noting that David Lee also did not play last night, however majority of Lee’s contributions will come through his offensive versatility and veteran leadership rather than his defense.

3. The Celtics have ridiculous depth.  Before the game, I wrote about the depth on the Celtics roster and that depth is what enabled them to dominate the Nets even when four important Celtics players were sidelined.  

The Celtics theoretically have enough talent to field three NBA starting lineups, so opposing second units will always be overmatched against Boston's bench.  The Celtics backups exhibit zero drop-off in both production and intensity. 

 There is no rest for the weary against the Celtics, who attack their opponents with intensity and fresh legs by mixing in so many different hard-working defensive-oriented players into the lineup.  Many teams find themselves struggling to field a passable roster during the middle months of the long NBA season, but the Celtics have the talent to always be productive, regardless of what combination of players is on the court.

4. I’m going to keep saying it - R.J. Hunter may be the future face of this franchise.  Deep down, we can all see that this kid is special and there is no ceiling on his potential.  Hunter was stroking it from three-point range in the first half last night and then filled up the rest of his stat sheet in the second half.  He works hard and has the ability to score like crazy.  Obviously he’s just a rookie and can’t be trusted yet as a reliable volume scorer in the NBA, but that hasn’t stopped him from finding countless other ways to contribute.  

His length and basketball IQ often help him intercept passes and he recorded a team-high 4 steals against the Nets.  He also contributed 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists in his first game against NBA opposition while showing no hesitation when pulling up from three-point range.  His jump shot will only become more lethal as he gradually becomes more comfortable in the NBA.

5. Sullinger looks very out of place.  He’s clearly uncomfortable about his uncertain role in the rotation and he honestly looks like he belongs on another team.  After all the offseason hype about Sullinger finally getting in shape, he predictably failed to do so.  Furthermore he shot 1-8 from the field last night, chucking up erroneous long range jumpers.  It is hard to watch Sullinger launch three-point attempts when everybody knows that he should be using his gigantic backside to post up defenders.  

There was a time when Sullinger was one of the best young players on this team, but with a measly two rebounds, three points, and four fouls in 12 minutes of action yesterday, it is hard to envision him receiving meaningful playing time this year.  The offseason acquisitions of Johnson and Lee make Sullinger entirely expendable, but truthfully there are no teams right now that would be interested in trading for a young player that isn't showing any improvement either from a skills or a conditioning standpoint.

Sullinger will likely be relegated to a bench role, and that’s probably for the best if Stevens wants his team to be as fast, active, and aggressive as possible.  Sullinger could be a starter for many NBA teams but he is holding himself back from reaching his full potential.  He will only play significant minutes this season when Lee is resting or when another big man gets hurt.